Jul 18, 10:23 PM ET
Mapping conflict-of-interest pumps. Dodge the artificial ones — Alpaca & SoFi.
⚠ DODGE LISTDJT · 128DELL · 121INTC · 111
DJT
🟥 AVOID
PUMP SCORE128/100
last $9.63 chg +0% VWAP $9.32 ABOVE VWAP
THE ARC — Trump events vs. tape
📉2026-07-16+8
DJT FADE CONFIRMED — pumped name now under VWAP
+-0.69% gapfaded→VWAP
AUTO-FADE: last 9.504 (-0.69% today) rolled UNDER VWAP. The dump leg of the arc is playing out.
📣2026-07-16+30
Trump Media & Technology Launches Truth API Data Feed That Gives Licensed, Real-Time Access To Posts From Top Truth Social Accounts
+7.75% gap
AUTO-DETECTED via benzinga. tape: last 9.73, 7.75% vs prev close, above VWAP, vol 0.99x.
📣2026-07-16+30
Trump Endorses MyPillow Founder for Governor
+4.65% gap
AUTO-DETECTED via politicalwire.com. tape: last 9.45, 4.65% vs prev close, above VWAP, vol 0.99x.
📣2026-07-16+30
Donald Trump posts unhinged late night frenzy on Truth Social with 13 posts in 15 mins - The Mirror US
+4.65% gap
AUTO-DETECTED via themirror.com. tape: last 9.45, 4.65% vs prev close, above VWAP, vol 0.99x.
📣2026-07-16+30
Trump promoted companies on Truth Social days after buying their stocks | CNN
+4.65% gap
AUTO-DETECTED via cnn.com. tape: last 9.45, 4.65% vs prev close, above VWAP, vol 0.99x.
DELL
🟥 AVOID
PUMP SCORE121/100
last $396.05 chg +1.19% VWAP $392.64 ABOVE VWAP
THE ARC — Trump events vs. tape
💼2025-12-01+25
Dell family gave $6.25B to 'Trump Accounts'; Trump then bought $1M+ DELL stock
Michael Dell family donation to Trump Accounts precedes Trump's personal DELL purchase. Direct conflict-of-interest setup.
📣2026-05-10+30
Trump says 'buy a Dell'; stock soared 13%
+13% gap
First public 'buy Dell' endorsement. Stock gapped 13%.
🏛️2026-05-27+25
Dell wins $9.7B Pentagon software deal days after Trump 'go out and buy'
Steered federal contract landing right after endorsement = the smoking-gun signal. NYT/WaPo both covered the conflict.
📣2026-07-06+30
Trump tells Americans to buy Dell for the THIRD time in 5 months (White House opening bell)
Third endorsement. Former WH ethics lawyer calls the trading 'egregious'.
📈2026-07-14+15
DELL +7.5% intraday, holding just above VWAP 454.10 (last 458.96)
+7.5% gap
Jul 14 live SIP: gapped hard, still above VWAP so NOT fully faded yet. Real leg exists (AI-server rev +757% to $16.1B, FY27 guide ~$60B) but Trump-premium is stacked on top. Watch for the fade.
📉2026-07-15+8
DELL FADE CONFIRMED — pumped name now under VWAP
+-5.35% gapfaded→VWAP
AUTO-FADE: last 433.075 (-5.35% today) rolled UNDER VWAP. The dump leg of the arc is playing out.
📉2026-07-16+8
DELL FADE CONFIRMED — pumped name now under VWAP
+-12.63% gapfaded→VWAP
AUTO-FADE: last 399.75 (-12.63% today) rolled UNDER VWAP. The dump leg of the arc is playing out.
INTC
🟥 AVOID
PUMP SCORE111/100
last $93.98 chg -3.09% VWAP $94.45 BELOW VWAP
THE ARC — Trump events vs. tape
💼2025-08-01+25
US government takes 9.9% equity stake in Intel via CHIPS Act funds
The original template. Federal stake = govt now has direct interest in pumping INTC. Stock rose ~4x since the stake announcement.
📣2026-05-02+30
Trump claims US made $30B in 90 days from its Intel stake (Truth Social)
Public presidential endorsement while govt holds the stock = conflict of interest.
📈2026-05-08+15
Trump brokers Intel-Apple chipmaking agreement; shares surge 13%
+13% gap
President personally brokering a commercial deal for a stock the govt owns. 18A-P process for Apple.
📣2026-06-18+20
Trump confirms Apple-Intel US chip deal; stock climbs 10.5%
+10.5% gapfaded→VWAP
Second wave. Repeat endorsement pattern — pump reinforced by presidential confirmation.
📉2026-07-14+5
INTC +3.8% but trading UNDER VWAP (105.89) — pump premium cooling
faded→VWAP
Jul 14 live tape: last 107.07 vs VWAP 105.89. The 4x-from-stake premium is now baked in; moves getting less explosive = arc maturing toward the dump phase.
📉2026-07-15+8
INTC FADE CONFIRMED — pumped name now under VWAP
+-3.78% gapfaded→VWAP
AUTO-FADE: last 103.685 (-3.78% today) rolled UNDER VWAP. The dump leg of the arc is playing out.
📉2026-07-16+8
INTC FADE CONFIRMED — pumped name now under VWAP
+-7.21% gapfaded→VWAP
AUTO-FADE: last 99.9924 (-7.21% today) rolled UNDER VWAP. The dump leg of the arc is playing out.
TSM
🟧 FADING
PUMP SCORE38/100
last $397.75 chg -2.93% VWAP $396.98 ABOVE VWAP
THE ARC — Trump events vs. tape
📉2026-07-16+8
TSM FADE CONFIRMED — pumped name now under VWAP
+-3.72% gapfaded→VWAP
AUTO-FADE: last 403.895 (-3.72% today) rolled UNDER VWAP. The dump leg of the arc is playing out.
📣2026-07-16+30
Truth Social to sell banks ’fastest’ access to Trump’s posts By Reuters
+-3.46% gapfaded→VWAP
AUTO-DETECTED via www.investing.com. tape: last 404.955, -3.46% vs prev close, UNDER VWAP, vol 0.96x.
Pump Score: endorsement +30 · holding +25 · steered fed contract +25 · gap +15 · fade→VWAP +20 · real earnings −20.
≥60 AVOID · 35–59 FADING · <60 w/ real leg = REAL. Read-only. Never auto-trades. Tape = our Alpaca SIP feed.